Sorry I have not posted this sooner, but I was on vk and did not have computer access. There is only two fights on this card that I think deserve bets. I tried to pick out a solid lock for the favorite and one upset, so lay enough money down on the lock to make up for if the upset looses.
Lawler over Smith: If you did not see the last fight, Lawlers hands are world better than smiths. The only chance smith has is to land one punch, which I do not think he is capable of. Lawler is a great pick at -210. This fight is the lock, so make sure you lay enough money down on this if you are going to gamble on the upset.
Thompson over Shields: I am looking forward to this fight more than anything else on the card. Thompson is a tought stand up fighter with great wrestling. Shields has a great submission game and is a very tough fighter. On the feet it will go to Thompson. He has a bigger reach and very good stand up. Thompson holds a knock out win over Alvarez, decision over Neer, and has won by vast mix of submissions. I beleive that Thompson will be able to impose his will in this fight and win. This is the only upset on the card worth betting on.
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July 2008
July 26, 2008
July 18, 2008
UFC Fight Night Silva VS Irvin bets, UFC Fight Night picks, UFC Fight Night predictions
Ok, so here is an event I am ready to bet on. I am going with all up sets. But I will not be betting on the main even. Silva is not small 205. He destroyed Franklin twice, who is way better on his feet than Irvin and not any smaller.
Franca over Edgar: I am not sure why Franca is an underdog here. He might not have fought in a while, but he has heavy heavy hands and a perfect ground game. If Edgar brings him to the ground he will be in trouble. I really like Edgar, but he is out matched here.
Taylor over Dollaway: Taylor is stronger and he is the better wrestler. He is also very hard to submit. The only place I can see Dollaway winning the battle is on the feet, but Taylor will get the fight on the ground and pound it out. As an upset Taylor is a no brainer.
No other fights really call for any bets. Hope you enjoy the event. I know I will.
Affliction banned bets, Affliction banned picks, Affliction banned predictions
Ok, so "the greatest heavy weight card ever" is taking place tomorrow. I have multiple problems with this event. The first, this could have had the greatest heavy weight fights ever, but there match making is terrible. In my opinion, besides Sylvia none of the underdogs on the main card even have a chance. So I am not putting any money down on any fights. This is not the type of card I bet on. If any one reading here wants any kind of betting advice on any fights. This is what I would do, put a dollar amoun on Arlosvski and a low dollar amount on Sylvia for the upset.
July 09, 2008
UFC 86 Recap, UFC 86 Results, Total record, General Updates, UFC Betting
I just got done watching UFC 86 for the 3rd time, this time
my focus was on scoring the bouts. I have mixed reviews in the event overall.
My only real complaint is that almost all of the main card fights went to a
decision. I hate decisions. This is not because I do not like close
battles, but I like having a definitive winner. Decisions make me really want
every fight to be 5 rounds. I posted in a comment earlier in the week that I
thought Almeida won. After watching that fight a couple times, I really found
it to be a draw. Almeida clearly won the first round, but did not designate a 10-8
by any means. Cote won the second round. The third round I thought was a draw.
The reason I gave it a draw it was Cote had a small edge in the striking, but
then Almeida took him down, so in my opinion that made the round even. In terms
of damage, nether fighter took any significant damage.
Things that I had wrong in my predictions, I saw two problems with my picks
that I did not see happening. First, in the Tyson Griffin vs Aurelio match I
thought that Aurelio would handled himself better standing. On
the ground it went how I saw it going, but I was hopping Aurelio would catch
the uncatchable Griffin. Second, in the Almedia vs Cote match I thought that
Almeida would press the pace more. It was hard to tell if he was tired or just
really relaxed. For a grappler, conditioning is everything. A grappler has the
task of taking the other person down and controlling their opponent's body.
My shock of the event was Grugel getting caught in a triangle. He was sloppy,
and he should have known not to be. He had the fight won. I expected a lot more
for a very highly regarded black belt.
If there was a rematch of the same exact fights in a year, I would pick everything
the same except the Griffin Aurelio fight. I gained a lot more respect for
Griffin that fight.
My record moves to 40-20. I consider that very good.
July 02, 2008
ufc 86 bets, ufc 86 picks, ufc 86 predictions
Ok, Time to win some more money. I was 7 for 7 on my last event, which was The Ultimate Fighter 7.
Griffin over Jackson: I said it I am going with Griffin. I am sure that I will be the only one out of any UFC betting blog saying Griffin here, but I have a few reasons why. The first is odds, I like to spread my money on favorites and pick 2 upsets that are the best upsets on the card. The second is that Griffin is a very smart fighter. The best fight to look at Griffin in is the Ortiz fight. By the end of the fight, Griffin had no problems stuffing the take down of Ortiz, who moves in a similar speed as Jackson. If Rampage does take Griffin down, you can be sure Griffin will not stop fighting until he is dead. I do not see Griffin submitting Jackson. Griffin does have better submissions, but Rampage is a beast and not easy to submit. Stand up, this is where I think Griffin's game plan will pay off. Rampage is a better boxer with way more power, but I think that Griffin can keep his distance and pick his spots and pull this out. I do not see Griffin Knocking Out Rampage, unless it is in the late rounds. Griffin needs to take a page out of Machida's book and stay at a distance then attack when he see's an opening. I love betting on Griffin as an underdog it has always paid well, and I owe it to him to give him a chance here.
Stevenson over Tibau: This should be a walk through for Stevenson. Tyson Griffin has a similar style as Stevenson and he was able to easly control Tibau. Stevenson is a top 10 fighter and will show why here.
Almeida over Cote: Cote has enough power to KO most fighters and is stand up is better than Almeida's, but Almeida's stand up is good enough to get in and take Cote down. When that happenes, Cote is going to be in a world of trouble that he will not be able to handle. Cote got distroyed by Lutter and Almeida's ground game is just as good and he trains way harder.
Koscheck over Lytle: I really like Lytle, but I have to look at the Hughes fight here. I think that Koscheck will take him down and hold him there. On the feet Lytle does have an advantage, but I don't think he will be able to stop Koscheck's take downs.
Aurelio over Griffin: Look to Aurelio is a really tough guy and I think he should be closer in odds to Griffin. Aurelio took Guida the distance and took a round from him. He also is one of the few to beat Gomi. For odds I have to take Aurelio here.
Gurgel over Miller: Gurgel will easly catch Miller in a submission.
So I am taking 3 upsets Gurgel, Aurelio, and Griffin. At worst on this event, I see me going 4-2 with Griffin and Aurelio losing.
